Oscar Talk: Supporting Players

You sort of want to expect an upset to occur in some acting category, but you also don’t to circulate ridiculous predictions.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

 In all honesty, I’d love for some upset to happen in the supporting actor category (granted that upset comes in the form of Mark Ruffalo). Not because I don’t think Bale is fine, but I’m on Ruffalo’s side all the way. In fact, I wouldn’t mind an upset for Rush either, he and Bale go toe to toe for me.

NOMINEES: Christian Bale in The Fighter / John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Prediction: Christian Bale Alternate: Geoffrey Rush

I don’t see Bale losing this, though. Were there an upset, you’d sort of expect it to be Rush if only because he has the most likeable character of the five, and there’s nothing like goodwill behind a film. Add that to the fact that he was instrumental in bringing The King’s Speech to fruition and you have to anticipate some love...but I don’t see the upset happening here.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I can’t be too certain that this is where the upset is happening either. That being said, though, I think any of four persons could take this prize and I wouldn’t be surprised. There’s a bit of irony that the best performance of the lot (i.e. Ms. Weaver) has 0 chance of winning, and more and more persons seem to have an inkling that the least of the five (i.e. Steinfeld) could take the prize. It’s not that I think she’s awful, she’s more than serviceable – but I still find her nomination – in any category – somewhat vexing. I digress, though.

NOMINEES: Amy Adams in The Fighter / Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech / Melissa Leo in The Fighter / Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit / Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom Prediction: Helena Bonham Carter Alternate: Melissa Leo

Am I crazy for predicting HBC? I don’t know, I just can’t see Melissa Leo winning the Oscar – I’d even be more willing to predict Amy – not only because I think she’s better, but I’m just not seeing it. I’m thinking back to instances of dual supporting nominees, and they rarely win. Didn’t Helen Mirren pick up more than a few nods (including the SAG) before losing to supporting wife Jennifer Connelly (who was horribly trite in A Beautiful Mind). I’d wager that not only is Helena much better than Jennifer, she’s also more in need of a nod – and Melissa is no Helen either, but I’m alone on that because almost everyone seems smitten with her Alice. It’s a tough game to decide what the voters would go for, and it would probably be more prudent to predict Melissa. I could see this prediction panning out, and then I could see it not. I’m going on a gut, here. Maybe, I’ll change my mind before Sunday....

What do you think will become of the supporting players?