Encore’s Birthday Marathon: Day 14

I posted a snippet earlier “celebrating” Clint Eastwood’s birthday. 2004 wasn’t the first year that I watched the Oscars, but it was the first year where I was actively participating. I had my prediction list, my wish list and I was painfully invested in the outcome of the “race”. So, it’s only natural that Clint’s visage is what appears when I think of all that went wrong with me and Oscar on that first fateful night. But, I think I’m already overreaching...

               

Around the time that the precursors were being handed out in that 04/05 Oscar season I remember making my sister print out the entire roster of the Oscars in the top 6 categories from 1932 onward. I’m still not sure what I hoped to achieve by this (as you can imagine it was a gargantuan amount of paper) but I ended up memorising a great deal of it so that I turned into a prodigious Oscar-trivia go-to person. I’ve grown past the embarrassment in that I can actually admit to it without cringing, much, but it’s only proof that when I commit to something I really do commit. General jadedness had made me lose that zeal towards the Oscars but I still retain that uncontrollable intensity (proof) and now I have this strange relationship with the Oscars – and all general awards’ ceremony, really. Jose said that if you try really hard you can blame every terrible thing about movies on the Oscars. He was deliberately being sarcastic, but is interesting how the Oscars have managed to take on that larger than life existence, which only adds to that conflicting relationship I have with them. It's too early in the year to spend talking about the Oscars. Right...?

           

It has been a while since the Oscars. How do you feel about them now?

Random Oscar Related Trivia: Actress

This is my final round of Oscar related retrospective ruminations...and, of course, I saved the best for last. The leading women. This is what my own winners would look like over the last eleven years.

              

            

2010: Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole (Oscar Nominated)

2009: Carey Mulligan in An Education (Oscar Nominated)

2008: Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road (SAG Nomination, Golden Globe Win)

2007: Angelina Jolie in A Mighty Heart (SAG Nomination, Golden Globe Nomination)

2006: Annette Bening in Running With Scissors (Golden Globe Nomination)

2005: Joan Allen in The Upside of Anger

2004: Annette Bening in Being Julia (Oscar Nominated)

2003: Diane Keaton in Something’s Gotta Give (Oscar Nominated)

2002: Nicole Kidman in The Hours (Won Oscar)

2001: Nicole Kidman in Moulin Rouge (Oscar Nominated)

2000: Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich (Won Oscar)

I am still puzzled when people say Nicole Kidman is a poor actor, for the life of me I can’t imagine why. In addition to being my favourite thrice in the last eleven years she’s been in contention for brilliant work in 2007, 2004, 2003 and 2001. I had a four year streak of picking those that Oscar snubbed (05-08). Incidentally, I consider those four as some of the best work of the last decade – just look at that streak of characters Terry, Deirdre, Marianne, April. Ah, well. Go figure. On to Oscars’ decisions.

2010: Natalie Portman in Black Swan

2009: Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side

2008: Kate Winslet in The Reader favourite in Supporting Actress)

2007: Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose (top 5)

2006: Helen Mirren in The Queen (top 10)

2005: Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line (top 5)

2004: Hilary Swank in Million Dollar Baby

2003: Charlize Theron in Monster (runner up to Keaton)

2002: Nicole Kidman in The Hours (favourite)

2001: Halle Berry in Monster’s Ball (top 10)

2000: Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich (favourite)

Other than the abominable Blind Side mention I’m okay with the Academy’s pick. Other than Bullock, my least favourite citation is Hilary Swank. And, though I do hold Swank in meagre estimation (especially since I believe she was the worst of the five) – the performance is more than passable – and I’m not just saying because two of my blogging buddies love it. And then there are some great ones like Roberts and Kidman – my two favourite wins of the last decade; and outstanding transformations like Winslet and Cotillard and Theron (though I’m more fond of Kate and Marion than Charlize). It really is some kind of awful that the greatest performances of Angelina Jolie AND Joan Allen were never even nominated, but I’m generally okay with this category. Even if, unlike Oscar, I’ve actually cited four comedic performances as favourites: I feel proud. They’ve cited zero.

(Previous Ruminations on Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor)

Where do you stand with Oscar and their Actresses?

More Random (Vaguely) Oscar Related Trivia: The Supporting Actor & Me

So, continuing my on my retrospective look at the relationship I’ve had with the Academy’s acting decisions over the last decade or so, I turn to the least celebrated of categories – the supporting men. I’ll credit the supporting actor category with being the one where the oddest of nominees turn up (for good or bad) – nominees like Matt Damon in Invictus or Jon Voight in Ali have that air of dubiousness shrouding them....even some of the winners seem a little more than a little circumspect.

        

Here’s what my own winners would look like:

2010: Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right (Oscar nominated)

2009: Paul Schneider in Bright Star

2008: Brad Pitt in Burn After Reading

2007: Ethan Hawke in Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

2006: Paul Dano in Little Miss Sunshine

2005: Paul Giamati in Cinderella Man (Oscar Nominated)

2004: Clive Owen in Closer (Oscar Nominated)

2003: Tim Robbins in Mystic River (Won Oscar)

2002: Ed Harris in The Hours (Oscar Nominated)

2001: Ian McKellen in The Lord of the Rings I (Oscar Nominated)

2000: Willem Defoe in Shadow of a Vampire (Oscar Nominated)

So, Robbins is the only time I’ve actually agreed with the Academy’s winner here and looking back through the nineties, I’m not especially thrilled with any of their winners other Joe Pesci in 1990 (what with clunkers like Michael Caine in Cider House Rules Tommy Lee Jones in The Fugitive). I notice that my picks in the latter half of the decade are less Oscar-ish than the first half, which makes me wonder if I haven’t seen as many from 2000-2004 as I’d like. Three comedic performances turn up, so that’s nice. On to Oscar and their choices...

2010: Christian Bale in The Fighter (top 5)

2009: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds (top ten)

2008: Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight (top 5)

2007: Javier Bardem in No Country For Old Men (top 5)

2006: Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine (top 10)

2005: George Clooney in Syriana

2004: Morgan Freeman in Million Dollar Baby

2003: Tim Robbins in Mystic River (favourite)

2002: Chris Cooper in Adaptation

2001: Jim Broadbent in Iris (runner up)

2000: Benicio Del Toro in Traffic (runner up)

Oddly, this is the category where I’ve got the best batting average. Only three of the actual winners didn’t show up anywhere in my own top ten. I still can’t express appreciation for Clooney’s work in Syriana (he’s my least favourite winner of this and the last decade). I don’t care for Cooper in Adaptation, but there’s little I care for in it – and Freeman theoretically gets a free-pass because he’s a fine actor, but I still can’t fathom the possibility of voters earnestly believing his performance was the best of the year – though anything is a possibility. 

         

How do you and Oscar measure up with the Supporting Males?

Goodbye February, Goodbye Oscar

So with the end of February comes the official end of the 2010 season. And, what a season it’s been. In my five years of taking the Oscars’ much too seriously, 2009 easily emerges as the worst (even though I loved the year in film, then). 2010 was okay, neither terrible nor excellent – rarely surprising, but always with something interesting (even if vaguely so). Last night’s Oscars were sort of a case in point. I didn’t feel disappointed or excited when the winners were announced; the single prize that actually made me gasp was Tom Hooper’s win. I feel bad for the guy – he, himself, seemed to shuffle embarrassedly to the stage, and I sincerely hope that that win doesn’t signal the death of his big-screen career before its beginning; and for the record, though he’s not my favourite in the category, an unobtrusive technique does not signify weakness in direction, yeesh. Other than that, it was quite tepid – even the “surprises” (Randy Newman, Pfister, Robert Stromberg) were expected in their way, so it was random bits like Cate Blanchett calling the makeup on The Wolfman “gross” and Kirk Douglas bantering with Colin and Hugh and Billy Crystal being awesome that made the night anything more than beige (or Annette Bening grinning through the entrire show, why is she always so happy?)

     

It’s the shortest month, and it felt even shorter – it just sort of flew by. I managed to wrap-up my own personal awards: with the usual dissonance between my own choices and AMPAS.

I was, as per normal, late with LAMB Casting – we’re on to a new film up for casting, the huge ensemble of P. T. Anderson’s Magnolia is up for reimagining (more details here).

Thanks to the usual readers for being their usual awesome selves (working on their own blogs and showing up here on occasion). Here are just a few of the comments I loved this past month.

On my discussion of Auspicious Cinema of 2010 (important films regardless of their quality, noted for their value, risk and originality) Tom of Reinvention: The Journal of a Dog-Lover, Book-Reader, Moviegoer, and Writer cites two The Kids Are All Right and Black Swan:

“I think Black Swan, of all of this year's films, will endure as an artistic moment that contemporary audiences have been scared to embrace. It is ahead of its time in terms of technical brilliance, telling a multi-layered story that affects the mind and heart on many levels. Those who are willing to enter its inferno of coming-of-age symbols will be forever changed.”

I’m not all with him there on Black Swan being before its time and whatnot, but this sort of discussion is one of the best parts of these year-end conversation – and I sort of love his “inferno of coming-of-age symbols” bit. It sounds highlight quotable.

    

I was musing over which of this year’s Oscar nominees I’d like to see hook-up in a film and Walter (of The Silver Screening Room) had some absolutely delightful ideas. I especially loved these two:

      

“Ooooh Bening/Rush makes me giddy, giddy, giddy. A remake of The Barkleys of Broadway? I never saw it, but it sounds like they'd be awesome in it -- husband/wife musical-comedy duo where she wants out). (a/n: how brilliant does this sound, though?)

Bardem and Firth as antagonists in a conspiracy thriller: both can be intense or easy-going, depending on the situation or role. The roles are interchangeable, but we get awesomeness no matter what!” (complete comment and post HERE)

I took a quasi-break from regular Oscar guessing to flashback to a personal favourite scene from On the Waterfront. I kept thinking how Eva Marie Saint and Marlon Brando there were so similar to Natalie Wood and Richard Beymer so many years later in another Best Picture Winner. Yojimbo of Let's Not Talk About Movies concurred:

“How can you NOT think of ‘Somewhere’ when Leonard Bernstein's tribal kettle drums, mournful brass, and keening strings are shared by both OTW and WSS?  This is a brilliant scene (and brilliant of you to include both parts of it—this cements the relationship between Edie and Terry, and transitions him from Hamlet-like conscience-fighting to not just deciding but taking action. And I've always loved the scene of them hand-in-hand running down the alleyway and their faces shining in the dark.” (full comment and post HERE)

And I rather loved Luke’s comment wrapping up the prognosticating for the season (HERE):

“Well, it seems you've got your answer to how the Academy will take A$lice in Wonderland's ‘let's barf visual effects on every frame’ mentality - they ate that crap up. I'm a little bothered by the Art Direction trophy - and just how much of the costuming was real and not CGI? And your final thoughts - how are you feeling about the movie that you named the most anticipated FOREVER ago ended up winning Best Picture. I sort of credit you with calling that one well over a year ago. Well done sir!”

With all the inklings I had, I should have just gone for the gut and predicted Alice in Wonderland in Art Direction. I do feel something vaguely akin to pride in having The King’s Speech being the film I was anticipating most of the year – even if I didn’t love it completely, it still made my top 7. And, really, though I know more than a few disagree (one, two) they could have picked a much more terrible winner – and I know some agree with me (one, two). I worry for Tom Hooper’s future (what with him “stealing the Oscar and all, sigh) but I’m absolutely fine with The King’s Speech resting as the film of the year.

          

So, goodbye February…how was it for you? Did you find the Oscars’ essentially bland? Did February fly by? Looking forward to March?

Oscar Talk: Because I Can (Final Oscar Predictions)

I didn't even realise that I went this crazy with talking Oscar this past season (all entries), it implicitly suggests that I was invested in the season - which I wasn't, but ah well. I do feel the slightest bit saddened that the season is over. Oscar's like one of those friends you can't stand to talk to often, but you'd implode if they died. So, ahoy - final final predictions.

       

Picture: The King’s Speech

Director: David Fincher for The Social Network

To tell you the truth, I wish I had the guts to predict The King’s Speech for both honours – but I’m hoping me not predict it will somehow make it not happen. Not because I’d mind Hooper winning that much (I won’t) – but I could only fathom the uproar that will occur if he does win the Oscar. And, I like the guy – don’t want him mauled. Either way, though, I’m fine. Both films and directors would appear somewhere in my top 10 – so I don’t mind what happens either way. (I’m still hoping for a delicious upset via The Kids Are All Right, but yeah, I’m fine either way.)

          

Actor: Colin Firth in The King’s Speech (alternate Javier Bardem in Biutiful)

Actress: Natalie Portman in Black Swan (Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right

So, Colin and Natalie? Je ne sais pas. It’s a tossup (in my head at least) for the acting race – but I’m willing expect my favourite to lose. Now that I look at it, though, I want Annette to win even more (apparently it IS possible). Remember she and Colin were in Valmont way back when. Wouldn’t it be nice to see them win Oscars together?

Supporting Actor: Christian Bale in The Fighter (Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech)

Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech (Alternate: Melissa Leo in The Fighter)

So, will HBC finally reach the podium 18 – or is it 13 – years after she deserved to? It depends on who you’re talking to pinpoint the precise year she deserved it, but she has before. Not for her Queen Mother, but do I care? No. I could be wrong, perhaps me wanting it means it won’t happen, but I’m sticking to that prediction. And, I suppose a Bale win is inevitable – which is fine. That pipedream for Ruffalo died long ago (though, I’ll admit I’m still pretending he’s winning in my head).

Original Screenplay: David Seidler for The King’s Speech (Alternate: Christopher Nolan for Inception)

Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network (Alternate: Michael Arndt, Jon Lasseter et al for Toy Story III

People are still predicting an Inception upset – which I swear would make me so infuriated I’m actually worried it’ll happen now. Look, fine I’m not a big Inception fan – but there’s such a colossal difference between originality and writing. The award seems skewed because it says “original writing” and not “screenplay from material previously unpublished”. Ah well, we’ll see what happens... I say it’ll be the two frontrunners for the Picture category with Sorkin and Seidler triumphing. And, since Cholodenko has no luck – I’m fine with these two choices.

Art Direction: The King’s Speech (Alternate: Inception)

Makeup: Barney’s Version (Alternate: The Wolfman)

Costume Design: Colleen Atwood for Alice in Wonderland (Alternate: Jenny Beavan for The King’s Speech

Now that I think of it, Art Direction could be a huge toss-up. Sure, The King’s Speech and Inception seem like the frontrunners – but there’s no telling how voters will respond to the obtrusiveness of Alice in Wonderland, and I sort of don’t see True Grit going home empty handed either. Aaargh, then there’s makeup which I’m really just guessing about – and them, Costume Design where I want Colleen to win because she’s the best and I want her to get her third statue, and then there’s Beavan who was snubbed for such great work in the 90s and did such good work on The King’s Speech which I’m not-so-secretly hoping will sweep the ceremony just for the fun of it. Decisions, decisions....

Sound Editing: Inception

Sound Mixing: Inception (The King's Speech)

I decided to go two for two with Inception here, because the sound branch seemed sort of insular in choosing The Hurt Locker last year. And, though, it’s possible they just thought it deserved both – and though Inception is nowhere near frontrunner status – it’s a possibility that seems logical. Now, The King’s Speech (or more realistically True Grit) could upset in the mixing category – but I’ll say no.

Cinematography: Danny Cohen for The King’s Speech (Alternate: Wally Pfister for Inception)

Editing: Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall for The Social Network (Tariq Anwar for The King’s Speech)

Visual Effects: Inception (Alternate: Alice in Wonderland)

Okay, I think this is the point where I’m getting ridiculous. Honestly, I can really see Cohen upsetting for photography in the same way that something like The Golden Compass upset for visuals or The Bourne Supremacy upset for sound. And, then I could see the obvious happening and Deakins winning or Pfister winning. Ugh, this is only a conundrum because I’m over-thinking it all – and I know I’m over-thinking it, but I can’t help over-thinking. This reminds me why I opted to show no interest in Oscar last year. I think the editing prize is assured, though. No? And the visual prize seems assured, but I think I’ll laugh if Alice in Wonderland (undeservedly, I’d admit) wins.

Original Score: Alexandre Desplat for The King’s Speech

Original Song: Alan Menken for “I See the Light” from Tangled

We all know how surprising the music branch can go when it comes to choosing winners (case in point: 2005, an exercise in strangeness). Will Desplat and Menken – the deserving – win? Will Zimmer and Rahman – the loud and the obvious – triumph. Will we go even crazier and reward the laidback ones like Reznor and Newman? I’m sticking with the first options.

Foreign Language Feature: Incendies (Alternate: In A Better World)

Documentary Feature: Inside Job (Alternate: Waste Land)

Animated Feature: Toy Story III (Alternate: How to Train Your Dragon)

I have a feeling Incendies is going to win, if only because most people who’ve seen the films admit that it’s terribly mawkish. I have that sort of little faith in the voters, although you’d think them having to watch the films in succession mean the best will win. I can’t be certain, Incendies just seems like a typical choice even if I want to say In A Better World. I’d sort of love Dogtooth to win, just because this guy here loves it – and it’ll probably make him happy. I’m sticking with Inside Job for documentary – just because.

Short Film (Animated): Day & Night (Alternate: Let’s Pollute)

Short Film (Documentary): Killing in the Name (Alternate: The Warriors of Qiugang)

Short Film (Live Action): The Confession (Alternate: God of Love)

I’m honestly stabbing in the dark here, and I sort of love it. I always do zero research for these categories and just choose based on name of film and directors. It’s always fun, but don’t take me seriously here. I have absolutely no authority.

                        

Well, Oscars are in about 18 hours or so. How was the season for you?

Oscar Talk: Actor and Actress

I often wonder why the actor and actress categories are considered superior to the supporters, but judging by the nominees this year I’d actually support that theory. The nominees for the leading categories significantly outweigh the supporting players.

            

ACTOR

Who’d have thought that Colin Firth would be the thespian to reach here before his contemporaries like Neeson, Branagh and Fiennes – but, that’s Oscar for you. He gets an immediate second shot at gold over last year’s loss, and he’s not likely to lose.

NOMINEES: Javier Bardem in Biutiful / Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours Prediction: Colin Firth Alternate Javier Bardem

I should probably qualify that alternate prediction by saying that of all the feature film categories this is the one where I believe an upset is likely. Still, at this rate, if any upset were to occur it would be one of catastrophic proportions – and who better than the man who turned into (somewhat) of an upset nominee. Analysing the field, on performances, I’d say that the prize is between Eisenberg and Firth so I don’t mind that Firth has sort of swept through the season, even if some deserving men got no love (my ballot). I never actually considered Sean Penn’s Milk to be an upset, the last real “surprise” this category saw was Adrien Brodey, but parallels between he and Eisenberg are tenuous at best. It’s Colin’s race.

         

ACTRESS

Logically, I shouldn’t be getting any sort of headache with the prediction for this category because Natalie has sort of swept through the season, well the majors anyway – but I’m still not absolutely certain that she’s the indisputable winner. Hell, it’s possible that I’ll see her on stage with the winning statuette and still doubt the veracity of her frontrunner status – I’m sort of ridiculous like that. I was depending on the BAFTA to give Annette the statue, and prove my theory whereby the Annette/Natalie race would turn into a converse version of the Marion/Julie race (both win Globes, one wins SAG and the other wins BAFTA) – but alas, I was wrong. Logically, if Annette had any hope you’d expect her to take at least one major from Natalie – but other than the surprise British Critics' win (which isn’t exactly a major) she's got nothing. And she still lost the BAFTA, so there’s no proof that she has the British voting bloc behind her.

           

NOMINEES: Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole / Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone / Natalie Portman in Black Swan / Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine

Prediction: Natalie Portman Alternate: Annette Bening

So, I’m predicting Natalie – which makes me feel a little bit like a Judas because I still think that Annette can win this. I’ve never been one to have ridiculous Oscar hopes (I gave up on Cate winning for I’m Not There even before Tilda t urned into the frontrunner) but I’m just getting a feeling, heaven knows what it is. (Really, though, how ironic is it that a win for Annette would be an upset – mindboggling, some.) So, Natalie’s my prediction with Annette as my alternate. You all know what I’m hoping for, though....(my picks)

         

How ridiculous are my great expectations of an Annette win? Who wants an upset in the Actor category?

Random Oscar Trivia: Andrew & the Best Actor

Okay, time for some random trivia (and by random, I mean superfluous) via yours truly. I was thinking today how often I’m completely off when it comes to the Oscars’ choices – which I think we all can lay claim to, but I’m especially off with their Best Actor decisions. Take this year for instance, none of my top three Actors are nominated (Eckhart, Dorff, Gosling) but I’m all behind Firth’s inevitable Oscar win. Which made me wonder, how often has my favourite of the year actually been nominated for an Oscar – let alone won? I always end up feeling a profound dissonance with the Academy’s male decisions. Sure, the odd Joan Allen in The Upside of Anger or Annette Bening in RunniNg With Scissors (truly brilliant Actress performances that got no love) might turn up, but I’m way off more often with the men. Case in point: the last eleven years.

          

My Picks (highest major awards’ honour in brackets)

2010: Aaron Eckhart in Rabbit Hole

2009: Ben Whishaw in Bright Star

2008: Leonardo DiCaprio in Revolutionary Road (Golden Globe Nomination)

2007: Brad Pitt in The Assassination of Jesse James

2006: Leonardo DiCaprio in The Departed (SAG Guild Nomination, Supporting Actor)

2005: Viggo Mortensen in A History of Violence (Golden Globe Nomination)

2004: Jude Law in Closer (Golden Globe Nomination)

2003: Sean Penn in Mystic River (Oscar Win)

2002: Daniel Day Lewis in Gangs of New York (Oscar Nomination)

2001: Ethan Hawke in Training Day (Oscar Nomination, Supporting Actor)

2000: Javier Bardem in Before Night Falls (Oscar Nomination)

            

And the Academy’s Picks (and where they placed in my awards)

2010: ? – Firth probably, for The King’s Speech (top 5, best of the nominees)

2009: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart

2008: Sean Penn in Milk (top 10)

2007: Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood (top 5, best of the nominees)

2006: Forrest Whitaker in The Last King of Scotland (top 10)

2005: Philip Seymour Hoffman in Capote (top 5, best of the nominees)

2004: Jamie Foxx in Ray (loathed this performance)

2003: Sean Penn in Mystic River (favourite of the year)

2002: Adrien Brodey in The Pianist (top 10)

2001: Denzel Washington in Training Day (top 5)

2000: Russell Crow in Gladiator (top 5)

         

I’m currently on a seven year streak of having my favourite Actor performances not turn up at the Academy. I’m sort of proud of that, though, in my twisted brain it just goes to show how much wiser than Oscar voters I am. Or, it’s just proof of how deliberately unusual (read: peculiar) my choices are. I feel sort of insular, though; like the Academy I haven’t chosen a comedic leading male in this category in a long time (FYI: I’d have given Joseph Fiennes a nomination AND win for Shakespeare in Love if I had the powers).

Despite my disagreement between the Academy and I there’s only one winner in the last decade that I absolutely hated – that was Foxx. He and Bridges are actually the one two winners who didn’t even crack my top ten. I don’t loathe Bridges work in Crazy Heart, and I don’t grudge him his Oscar – I just find the film and him in iT, ultimately tedious.

             

As far as excitability goes, this year’s actor race seems set to be a repeat of last year’s with nary a surprise in sight. But, I don’t grudge Colin his win – I’m rooting for him, even he’s not my personal pick. When was the last time your favourite matched with Oscar? Are you as unlucky as picking the Best Actors (as far as AMPAS is concerned) as I?

Oscar Talk: Supporting Players

You sort of want to expect an upset to occur in some acting category, but you also don’t to circulate ridiculous predictions.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

 In all honesty, I’d love for some upset to happen in the supporting actor category (granted that upset comes in the form of Mark Ruffalo). Not because I don’t think Bale is fine, but I’m on Ruffalo’s side all the way. In fact, I wouldn’t mind an upset for Rush either, he and Bale go toe to toe for me.

NOMINEES: Christian Bale in The Fighter / John Hawkes in Winter’s Bone / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Prediction: Christian Bale Alternate: Geoffrey Rush

I don’t see Bale losing this, though. Were there an upset, you’d sort of expect it to be Rush if only because he has the most likeable character of the five, and there’s nothing like goodwill behind a film. Add that to the fact that he was instrumental in bringing The King’s Speech to fruition and you have to anticipate some love...but I don’t see the upset happening here.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I can’t be too certain that this is where the upset is happening either. That being said, though, I think any of four persons could take this prize and I wouldn’t be surprised. There’s a bit of irony that the best performance of the lot (i.e. Ms. Weaver) has 0 chance of winning, and more and more persons seem to have an inkling that the least of the five (i.e. Steinfeld) could take the prize. It’s not that I think she’s awful, she’s more than serviceable – but I still find her nomination – in any category – somewhat vexing. I digress, though.

NOMINEES: Amy Adams in The Fighter / Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech / Melissa Leo in The Fighter / Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit / Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom Prediction: Helena Bonham Carter Alternate: Melissa Leo

Am I crazy for predicting HBC? I don’t know, I just can’t see Melissa Leo winning the Oscar – I’d even be more willing to predict Amy – not only because I think she’s better, but I’m just not seeing it. I’m thinking back to instances of dual supporting nominees, and they rarely win. Didn’t Helen Mirren pick up more than a few nods (including the SAG) before losing to supporting wife Jennifer Connelly (who was horribly trite in A Beautiful Mind). I’d wager that not only is Helena much better than Jennifer, she’s also more in need of a nod – and Melissa is no Helen either, but I’m alone on that because almost everyone seems smitten with her Alice. It’s a tough game to decide what the voters would go for, and it would probably be more prudent to predict Melissa. I could see this prediction panning out, and then I could see it not. I’m going on a gut, here. Maybe, I’ll change my mind before Sunday....

What do you think will become of the supporting players?

Oscar Talk: Writing

I felt quite a disconnect with the Academy’s decisions for the screenplays – I’d have nominated only three of their ten choices (my own nominees here), sometimes you get the feeling that voters aren’t willing to believe that a fine film could have writing that’s less than top-notch, although I’ll applaud them for not nominating Black Swan – a good film, but not a screenplay worthy of “best-of” citations. Ironically, that nomination would have been better than one, perhaps two, of the actual nominees. But, digressions... let’s take a look at the field.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The logic that because deems Toy Story III an adaptation is ridiculous – being a sequel does not make it an adaptation. All five of the nominees are in consideration for Best Picture, but this is essentially looking like a one-horse race.

NOMINEES: 127 Hours (Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle) / The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin) / Toy Story III (Michael Arndt, John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich) / True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen) / Winter’s Bone (Debra Granik and Anne Rossellini) Prediction: The Social Network Alternate: Toy Story III

I have it as an alternate, because it’s the most likely upset – but it’s unlikely either way. Sure, it’s the final branch of the trilogy, so there would be goodwill, but it’s not happening. And, really, I don’t mind. With neither Rabbit Hole nor The Ghost Writer in consideration I’m fine with The Social Network taking the prize.

         

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This one is more interesting. I’m not the biggest fan of Inception, although I can appreciate that it has its fan, but I find it difficult to understand how it won the WGA (over Cholodenko and Blumberg).

NOMINEES: Another Year (Mike Leigh) / The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy) / Inception (Chris Nolan) / The Kids Are All Right (Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko) / The King’s Speech (David Seidler) Prediction: The King’s Speech Alternate: Inception

Seidler wasn’t eligible for the WGA, and in a perfect world it’d be between he and Cholodenko/Blumberg. Well, actually, in reality The Kids Are All Right would win this prize easily, but The King’s Speech is not a terrible alternative. It’s the likely winner here – I don’t anticipate a Nolan upset, but if one were to occur it’d be this.

        

It makes for rather tepid predictions, but I suppose there’s some comfort in predictability....right? Are you praying for any upsets in the screenplay field?

Oscar Talk: Music

The music branch of the Academy continues to be fun, if only because attempts to predict what they’ll do become more and more exasperating as the years go by. But, here goes.

        

ORIGINAL SONG

I’d say that the race is between “I See the Light” and “Coming Home” when it comes to actual merit, with the slight edge going to the former. The music branch has a thing for well produced duets, it’s difficult to deny that with all its issues Tangled does know when to place its songs.

NOMINEES: “Coming Home” from Country Strong / “I See the Light” from Tangled / “If I Rise” from 127 Hours / “We Belong Together” from Toy Story III Prediction “I See the Light” Alternate “We Belong Together”

But, then, multiple nominee 127 Hours has such obvious spoiler potential, I wonder if Rahman is headed to a third Oscar, and if they like duets they like pain and heartbreak and inspirational tosh just as much – so, I wouldn’t be shocked if Rahman takes it here, still I'm putting Newman as my alternate because he lost last year and because I have a feeling they're going to want to reward Toy Story III as much as they could (barring the screenplay and picture category), so why not choose it over Tangled, since it's more loved animated film. (Not that I think it even deserves to be nominated, but I digress...)

ORIGINAL SCORE

Is it insularity on the part of AMPAS, or is it just coincidence that three of the 2008 nominees are back to battle it out (the winner included). Naturally, I assume that this is the chance for voters to write that egregious wrong and reward Alexandre Desplat. True, it’s an all-round good set of nominees – but they can’t continue to snub Desplat after robbing him in 2008 and 2009, right? But, then, there’s Zimmer’s VERY intrusive work in Inception and we know that voters like their music loud.

NOMINEES: How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell) / Inception (Hans Zimmer) / The King’s Speech (Alexandre Desplat) / 127 Hours (A. R. Rahman) / The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross Prediction: The King’s Speech Alternate: Inception

      

Then, there’s the more subtle work on The Social Network which I don’t think has much upset potential – but is still not one that I should rule out completely. I’m sticking with Desplat, for now, though. It’s about time they reward the music branch’s most ubiquitous composer of the moment.

Oscar Talk: Visual (Artistic) Techs

It's a bit strange, but I much more excited to see what these three categories will be than the actual main categories. Every category's a main category in my eyes, well except for original song (because they snubbed Burlesque and Chris Martin, unforgivable). Oh well, on to predictions.

         

MAKEUP

This is the sole category where the nominees have not been singled out in any other category, which makes it the sole category where a Best Picture nominee is not included in the list of nominees. Really, I have no idea what they’ll go for here, I really could see it going to any of the nominees – the fact that I’ve yet to see any of the nominees here doesn’t help my situation.

NOMINEES: Barney’s Version / The Way Back / The Wolfman Prediction: The Wolfman Alternate: Barney’s Version

It’s not meant as an insult to the AMPAS voters, but the work on The Wolfman is so intrusive I’d wager that it’d be difficult to ignore. Barney’s Version seems like a worthy alternate because helping characters age is always a valuable way of getting recognition here. I actually want The Way Back to win, just for the talent involved – but it seems to be the most unobtrusive of the nominees. Though, I don’t know if that could be to its credit.

             

COSTUME DESIGN

Once again, the queens of Costuming (Atwood and Powell) are nominated opposite each other. Last year I was all for an Atwood win (), though I didn’t mind Powell’s triumph for The Young Victoria (she gives such great speeches). This means that Powell now has 3 statues and Atwood has 2, and since I already think Atwood is the best of the lot I figure that she’ll get the third statue now. She’s actually never been rewarded for the work she’s done on Burton films yet, so maybe now’s the time.

NOMINEES: Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood) / I Am Love (Antonella Cannarozzi) / The King’s Speech (Jenny Beavan) / The Tempest (Sandy Powell) / True Grit (Mary Zophres) Prediction: Alice in Wonderland Alternate: The King’s Speech

I keep thinking, though, that Beavan’s work in The King’s Speech could end up becoming a spoiler. True, the most conspicuous designs often end up triumphing here until that time when they don’t (see: The English Patient over Portrait of a Lady or The Aviator over The Phantom of the Opera). Beavan’s work in The King’s Speech is more modest, but there’s always the possibility that love for The King’s Speech could spill over here – or backlash for Alice in Wonderland...

            

ART DIRECTION

I find the citation for Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows a bit ridiculous, especially when you consider all the great examples of production design ignored (Agora, Shutter Island, Never Let Me Go, Nowhere Boy or even films they embraced like Black Swan) – other than that, though, it’s a generally good batch of nominees. Though, the inclusion of Alice in Wonderland is a bit predictable – and not in a good way.

NOMINEES: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows I / Inception / The King’s Speech / True Grit Prediction: The King’s Speech Alternate: Inception

       

I’d expect The King’s Speech to be assured a win here – the work done is especially good here, and it’s probably facing the greatest competition from Inception. The thing with Inception, though, is that the overlapping between production design and visual effects could seem so stark that The King’s Speech could get the edge.

       

So, is Atwood going to get that third win from the Academy? Inception or The King’s Speech for production design? Which otherwise ignored film gets the makeup statue?

Oscar Talk: Visual Techs

So, apparently on the cusp of the ASC win for Inception it’s turned into the frontrunner for Cinematography.

          

CINEMATOGRAPHY

I feel like such a fraud having next to no enthusiasm about the race, so despite the fact that Inception shows up nowhere in my top 12 directors of photography I’d be least interested if it actually wins. Logic dictates that True Grit’s Roger Deakins (who’s been trying for that Oscar for some time) will get his due, but I won’t be surprise if he loses. In fact, my gut tells me that The King’s Speech could very well take this, and I’d be fine since it actually makes my list of nominees – but that could result in a potential bloodbath since everyone isn’t convinced that it’s well shot – and the backlash against it is already deafening. The Social Network is not one to rule out here, either and logically, you have to at least consider the possibility of a Black Swan – a win I’d be on board with. Inception aside (or not, even) it’s a fine bunch of nominees.

NOMINEES: Black Swan (Matthew Libatique) / Inception (Wally Pfister) / The King’s Speech (Danny Cohen) / The Social Network (Jeff Cronoweth) / True Grit (Roger Deakins) Prediction: The King’s Speech Alternate: True Grit

Maybe I’ll change my mind, but I’m going with The King’s Speech for cinematography – which is based, more than anything, on a maddening hunch of mine.

VISUAL EFFECTS

As far as locks go, I don’t think that Inception is as assured of its win here as – say – Avatar last year; but it’s most likely to assume that it’ll win here. Logically, I’d only see Harry Potter being any competition; but AMPAS voters have not always been known for logic and there’s no telling what sort of spoiler Alice in Wonderland could end up being here. Perhaps, a distant second...?

NOMINEES: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows I / Hereafter / Inception / Iron Man II Prediction: Inception Alternate: Alice in Wonderland

EDITING

You know that trend where the Best Picture winner wins editing, I’m often confused by it...but I digress. Owing to the fact that there is nary a stinker in the ten films nominated for Best Picture, the five editing nominees are quite stellar – with the exception of 127 Hours, which is too unsubtle for me to fête. The Social Network wins my own personal competition, and I predict that it’d be the logical winner here.

NOMINEES: Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum) / The Fighter (Pamela Martin) / The King’s Speech (Tariq Anwar) / 127 Hours (Jon Harris) / The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall) Prediction: The Social Network Alternate: Black Swan

I think of The King’s Speech and Black Swan as potential spoilers, although I think the former’s editing is “better” they both have that palpable “edited” feel without being too overworked and Black Swan does accomplish much of its development through its editing, so who knows if a Black Swan surge could occur.

          

Is Deakins or Pfister headed to the podium? Or is there wisdom in my folly? Does The Social Network and Inception have editing and visuals locked up? Do you care?

Oscar Talk: Aural Techs

I’ve been shirking my duties as Oscar prognosticator (insert dry laughter) as of late because I’ve been counting down my own awards. I didn’t even realise the BAFTA’s had come and gone, although that could be attributed more to my mystical presence on the internet as of late (computer problems + internet issues + school drama).

             

SOUND MIXING & SOUND EDITING

I’m still constantly amused by the reaction to The King’s Speech leading the Oscar pack, not because I find aversion to the film impossible – that would be silly – but because too many are willing to reject its sound mixing nomination as something valid. It’s surely not the frontrunner by any means, not conceivably at least, but I don’t find its inclusion to be a moot point.

           

NOMINEES: Inception / The King’s Speech / Salt / The Social Network / True Grit Prediction: True Grit Alternate: The King’s Speech

        

NOMINEES: Inception / Toy Story III / TRON: Legacy / True Grit / Unstoppable Prediction: Inception Alternate: Toy Story III

          

I suppose that Inception will take the sound editing category, if only because 127 Hours was egregiously snubbed here. In the light of its love from the Academy (a whopping 6 nominations) I’m still surprised that they didn’t nominate it here. Sound mixing is trickier, though, and who’s to say that me deeming The King’s Speech as little to no competition will prevent it from winning. I wouldn’t complain whatever wins, none of my nominees are nominated here (Black Swan, Shutter Island, Green Zone) but I’m wary of predicting Inception to take both trophies and considering that True Grit has also been singled out for both sound categories, I’ll wager that that will take the sound mixing category.

          

Who do you see taking the sound prize?

The Full List of Oscar Nominations (and my predictions)

So, the nominations are here and even though I'm spouting off on twitter I'm strangely zen about the whole affair. True, those song nominees are making me see red, but I'm sort of glib about stupity like Steinfeld for Supporting Actress and such. Let's take a look, shall we?

SOUND EDITING
I predicted 127 Hours / Toy Story III / Inception / Scott Pilgrim vs the World / True Grit. Here's how it went, Actual Nominees: Inception /Toy Story III / TRON: Legacy / True Grit / Unstoppable 
So, I get three out of five, I'm kind of shocked that 127 Hours didn't make it here, and in theory I'm glad that the sound voters recognise some less than prestigious flicks (aka Unstoppable). I suppose I was a bit a lot fanciful in predicting Scott Pilgrim vs the World here.

SOUND MIXING
I predicted 127 Hours / Inception / Shutter Island / Toy Story III / True Grit Actual Nominees: Inception / The King's Speech / Salt / The Social Network / The King's Speech
I get two out of five here; I'm not in love with 127 Hours, but the snub sure is odd. Of course good work in Robin Hood and Green Zone would be ignored, but I thought this was a shoo-in.  Just an aside, people need to quit dogging on The King's Speech, for one it's nomination makes more sense than The Social Network (although they both make worthy nominees) - I wonder if people actual get what sound mixing is. Sheesh, the hate is going overboard. The entire first ten minutes of The King's Speech depends on the blend of score with sound - which is, sound mixing.

ORIGINAL SONG
I predicted IF I RISE from127 Hours / YOU HAVEN'T SEEN THE LAST OF ME from Burlesque / CHANSON ILLUSIONIST from The Illusionist / I SEE THE LIGHT from Tangled / WE BELONG TOGETHER from Toy Story III and the Actual Nominees: COMING HOME from Country Strong / I SEE THE LIGHT from Tangled / IF I RISE from 127 Hours / WE BELONG TOGETHER from Toy Story III

I get three out of four here, but it hurts to see Burlesque snubbed here. Absolute bull-crap, but I'm going to let that go - what's the point in holding on to it?

ORIGINAL SCORE
I predicted 127 Hours / Alice in Wonderland / Inception / The King's Speech / The Social Network and the Actual Nominees: 127 Hours / How to Train Your Dragon / Inception / The King's Speech / The Social Network
Well, four of five is not bad and it's  a bit nice to see How To Train Your Dragon here. I've surrendered to the fact that Oscar choices will not be mine (you'll see those soon enough), and this is a distinguised bunch.

VISUAL EFFECTS
I predicted Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows / Inception / Scott Pilgrim vs the World / TRON Legacy and the Actual Nominees: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows / Hereafter / Inception / Iron Man II
 I get three out of five here, and I really can't fathom the love for Iron Man II here. I understand the Alice in Wonderland love - even if I don't agree with it, but that one is a headscratcher.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
I predicted, Black Swan / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / True Grit Actual Nominees: Black Swan / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / True Grit
A perfect score here, but well this was a bit easy - no? All wouldn't make a list of my own, and I would have preferred some surprises from the cinematographers who're sometimes much more inventive - but it's a good set.

EDITING
I predicted The Fighter / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / True Grit and the Actual Nominees: 127 Hours / Black Swan / The Fighter / The King’s Speech / The Social Network
Three out of five; I can't help but hate that Boyle's ADD style earns him a nod  here even if I shouldn't fault people for their opinion.

COSTUMES

I predicted Alice in Wonderland / Burlesque / The King’s Speech / True Grit / The Tempest Actual Nominees: Alice in Wonderland / I Am Love / The King’s Speech / True Grit / The Tempest
I get four out of five here, and I can't comment on I Am Love because I've yet to see it. Truth be told, though, I'm kind of happy it's nominated if only because it's something surprising (even if, vaguely so).

ART DIRECTION
I predicted Alice in Wonderland / Inception / The King’s Speech / Shutter Island / True Grit Actual Nominees: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows I / Inception / The King’s Speech / True Grit
Four out of five; I like Harry Potter but its nomination here annoys me terribly. It's still above average, but there wasn't much scope for interesting production design this year and even though I suppose my Shutter Island prediction was a pipedream it's still unfortunate.

MAKEUP
I predicted, Alice in Wonderland / True Grit / The Wolfman Actual Nominees: Barney's Version / The Way Back / The Wolfman
And I get one of three, ouch. But I'm GLAD - at least some recognition for these two films many have not seen (myself included).

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I predicted Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech and the Actual Nominees: Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech
And, YES no Black Swan here which means I get four out of five. Sure, I'd throw out the exposition heavy Inception but I'm glad for small mercies. I suppose I have to see Another Year now, not that I'm complaining....

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
I predicted 127 Hours / The Social Network / True Grit / Toy Story III / Winter’s Bone Actual Nominees: 127 Hours / The Social Network / True Grit / Toy Story III / Winter’s Bone
The voters are absolutely crazy for deeming Toy Story as an adapted screenplay (it's a sequel, not a remake) but I get five out of five here, so whatever.

DIRECTOR
My predictions Aronofsky for Black Swan / Fincher for The Social Network / Hooper for The King’s Speech / Nolan for Inception / Reilly for The Fighter Actual Nominees: Aronofsky for Black Swan / Coen's for True Grit / Fincher for The Social Network / Hooper for The King’s Speech / Reilly for The Fighter
Foour out of five; Honestly, the Nolan snub made me laugh because I wanted to call it but then figured, nah. I'm really not incensed because it's not like he's the only one snubbed here - but Oscar dissenters can be so insular at times. Sigh. Again I say, whatever.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

My predictions were Amy Adams in The Fighter / Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech / Mila Kunis in Black Swan / Melissa Leo in The Fighter / Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom Actual Nominees: Amy Adams in The Fighter / Helena Bonham Carter in The King’s Speech / Melissa Leo in The Fighter / Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit / Jacki Weaver in Animal Kingdom
Four out of five; I can't explain how annoyed I am at the stupidity of Steinfeld's nod here, it's borderline ridiculous and easily my LEAST favourite thing of the day. It's more than her taking a slot for a deserving supporting player, but the category fraud is heinous. I'm surprised voters went for it, but c'est la vie.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
I predicted Christian Bale in The Fighter / Andrew Garfield in The Social Network / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech Actual Nominees: Christian Bale in The Fighter / John Hawkes in Winter's Bone / Jeremy Renner in The Town / Mark Ruffalo in The Kids Are All Right / Geoffrey Rush in The King’s Speech
Four out of five; I called a surprise here, but I wasn't sure what so I didn't predict it. I'm not shocked to see Garfield go, and really the group could have been much worse.

ACTRESS

I predicted Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right / Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole / Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone / Natalie Portman in Black Swan / Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit Actual Nominees: Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right / Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole / Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone / Natalie Portman in Black Swan / Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine
It's a strong lineup, there's one or two I'd toss out immediately - not because they're bad, but because it was a great year for women - but it's a good group.

ACTOR
I predicted Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Robert Duvall in Get Low / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours Actual Nominees: Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Javier Bardem in Biutiful / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours
I'm get to see Bardem's performance, but I'm not complaining about my four out of five here. There's no absolute stinker in sight, so that's good to see.

ANIMATED FILM
I predicted How to Train Your Dragon / Toy Story III / Tangled and Actual Nominees: How to Train Your Dragon / The Illusionist / Toy Story III
And YES, Tangled is shut-out. The fact that I haven't seen The Illusionist makes me suspect, maybe I'll like it less than Tangled. But I never said I was a man of logic (just check the tagline on my banner).


PICTURE

127 Hours / Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / The Town / True Grit / Toy Story III Alternates: Winter’s Bone / Get Low / Shutter Island
Nine out of ten with Winter's Bone subbing for The Town which I'm fine with. It's an unsurprising group, but considering my least favourites of the set is 127 Hours (C+) I suppose it's not terrible.

What's more, my prediction of The King's Speech leading the nods with 12 nominations was correct. With 72 correct of 96 options, I think I did fairly well though I just predict for the hell of it and being right doesn't really have any appeal. I know more than a few are furious, but I don't think the nominees are that poor. A few hours have passed, what knee-jerk reactions to the nominees do you have?

All the categories, including Docs and Shorts