Oscar Talk: Visual Techs

So, apparently on the cusp of the ASC win for Inception it’s turned into the frontrunner for Cinematography.

          

CINEMATOGRAPHY

I feel like such a fraud having next to no enthusiasm about the race, so despite the fact that Inception shows up nowhere in my top 12 directors of photography I’d be least interested if it actually wins. Logic dictates that True Grit’s Roger Deakins (who’s been trying for that Oscar for some time) will get his due, but I won’t be surprise if he loses. In fact, my gut tells me that The King’s Speech could very well take this, and I’d be fine since it actually makes my list of nominees – but that could result in a potential bloodbath since everyone isn’t convinced that it’s well shot – and the backlash against it is already deafening. The Social Network is not one to rule out here, either and logically, you have to at least consider the possibility of a Black Swan – a win I’d be on board with. Inception aside (or not, even) it’s a fine bunch of nominees.

NOMINEES: Black Swan (Matthew Libatique) / Inception (Wally Pfister) / The King’s Speech (Danny Cohen) / The Social Network (Jeff Cronoweth) / True Grit (Roger Deakins) Prediction: The King’s Speech Alternate: True Grit

Maybe I’ll change my mind, but I’m going with The King’s Speech for cinematography – which is based, more than anything, on a maddening hunch of mine.

VISUAL EFFECTS

As far as locks go, I don’t think that Inception is as assured of its win here as – say – Avatar last year; but it’s most likely to assume that it’ll win here. Logically, I’d only see Harry Potter being any competition; but AMPAS voters have not always been known for logic and there’s no telling what sort of spoiler Alice in Wonderland could end up being here. Perhaps, a distant second...?

NOMINEES: Alice in Wonderland / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows I / Hereafter / Inception / Iron Man II Prediction: Inception Alternate: Alice in Wonderland

EDITING

You know that trend where the Best Picture winner wins editing, I’m often confused by it...but I digress. Owing to the fact that there is nary a stinker in the ten films nominated for Best Picture, the five editing nominees are quite stellar – with the exception of 127 Hours, which is too unsubtle for me to fête. The Social Network wins my own personal competition, and I predict that it’d be the logical winner here.

NOMINEES: Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum) / The Fighter (Pamela Martin) / The King’s Speech (Tariq Anwar) / 127 Hours (Jon Harris) / The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall) Prediction: The Social Network Alternate: Black Swan

I think of The King’s Speech and Black Swan as potential spoilers, although I think the former’s editing is “better” they both have that palpable “edited” feel without being too overworked and Black Swan does accomplish much of its development through its editing, so who knows if a Black Swan surge could occur.

          

Is Deakins or Pfister headed to the podium? Or is there wisdom in my folly? Does The Social Network and Inception have editing and visuals locked up? Do you care?

Oscar Talk (FINAL PREDICTIONS): Actor and Actress

I can’t help but hate that the Actor and Actress categories are regarded as the superior ones. I guess, back in the day when the supporting players received plaques and not an actual statute that there really was a difference in winning a leading and supporting Oscar – but now that everyone’s receiving the same gold man that sort of logic seems foolish. Still, here we have them – the two main acting categories and pundits would have you believe that the winners have been chosen in both. But, this space is dedicated to predicting the nominees irrespective of potential winners – for now, anyhow.

BEST ACTOR

This seems like a year evocative of 2004, a bulk of men being nominated for playing real people. Firth, of course, is the biggest lock of the category with his performance in Best Picture hopeful The King’s Speech and he’s as assured of a nod as Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network. It’s weird, three months ago no one would have been certain of this but it’s nice to see that Eisenberg has managed to pick up traction. By omission James Franco seems like the logical person to cite next, and it’s weird – he reminds me a bit of Charlize Theron’s actress nomination in 2005 for North Country. He’s there, showing up at all the precursors but no one really seems especially fanatic about the performance. But, I suppose, he won’t be snubbed and – perhaps, the same can be said of Jeff Bridges in True Grit. Like so many of the categories that dreaded fifth spot seems up for grabs and I really don’t anticipate the AMPAS snubbing Duvall – who they’ve long had a love affair with, but there’s a host of guys fighting for that spot. Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine comes to mind as an obvious contender, but even more I’m wondering if the surge of support for The Fighter could translate into a nod for Mark Walhberg. It’s weird; I still can’t fully reconcile how DiCaprio managed to not turn up with any awards’ traction this year and I wonder – could he be a potential spoiler? I don’t even like his work in Inception, and I wouldn’t mind a very leftfield surprise in that vein. I’m going to go with my gut – as usual, come hell or high-water.

Predictions (alpha): Jeff Bridges in True Grit / Robert Duvall in Get Low / Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network / Colin Firth in The King’s Speech / James Franco in 127 Hours Alternates (by probability): Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter / Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine

BEST ACTRESS

And then the women...I still say that Hailee Steinfeld will turn up here or nowhere, and even though I hope I’m terribly wrong and she shows up NOWHERE (sorry, I can’t get behind awards’ traction for that performance) I’m predicting her here. I can’t believe that anyone who sees True Grit can consider her a supporting player, there’s no thin line – it’s not a case of an on-the-cusp co-lead, it’s sort of a flat-out lead role so I guess I’m giving the benefit of the doubt to the AMPAS. Annette and Natalie, at this point are assured of their nominations and they’ll probably end up going head to head for the statue. Kidman and Lawrence have been turning up most everywhere, although I suppose that they’re not as certain as I anticipate. In fact, some are actually predicting a snub for Kidman (though I think she’s more assured of a nod than Lawrence) – the lack of a BAFTA nod acting as a potential impetus. But, like the actor race, I think there are four locks and one fighting spot – probably going to Steinfeld. I’m still not sure how AMPAS is going to respond to The Kids Are all Right and I still don’t want to cast off the possibility of Julianne Moore picking up a nod. Then, there’s Michelle Williams who could possibly get in for Blue Valentine. I don’t hold Swank’s SAG nod in estimation – but I suppose I shouldn’t ignore the possibility.

Predictions (alpha): Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right / Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole / Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone / Natalie Portman in Black Swan / Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit Alternates (by probability): Julianne Moore in The Kids Are All Right / Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine / Hilary Swank in Conviction

           

Are the lead categories as wrapped up as I think or will the Blue Valentine duo crack the top 5? Will AMPAS honour Hailee here or am I just projecting – incorrectly? Any last minute predictions?

Long Overdue 99 Cent Word Reviews: True Grit; Conviction

I saw both of these quite some time ago and have been mustering up the will to review them. I feel a bit terrible, because – really – little is coming. But, I must, because duty calls or something like that.

   

On Conviction

It feels like lazy journalism to say that this seems like one of those low-rent films that would be on Lifetime, but that doesn’t make it any less true. Sure, Goldwyn tries to do some interesting things in trying to make us care about this filial pair but it’s all so terribly tepid and there’s a surprising lack of urgency in a film that should feel a little bit more profound. Rockwell sure is diverting, but even he ends up seeming eventually disinterested in it all. Swank tries, too, but she’s just not luminous enough to make this work.

C

And True Grit

There’s just something about the tone of True Grit that seems a bit pleased with itself, perhaps it’s the Western genre but it doesn’t really feel like a true Western. I’m not one for the genre, and sure being a western is more internal than external but it’s more striking as a straight coming of age drama than a traditional western which doesn’t make it a worse film but makes me wonder why we’re being built up for the appearance of Brolin’s Chaney which falls limp – and is wholly flat, easily a disservice to the fine attempts before.

B-

                

As an aside, it’s weird how both Conviction and True Grit set their lead women up for glory – character-wise, and role-wise. The general cast end up bowing down to them both and they’re both given roles that we’re almost forced to appreciate on face value.

           

Ask me some question, and I’ll elaborate. What did you think of True Grit and Conviction?

Oscar Talk: The Pictures (Featuring PGA nominations)

The PGA nominations were announced today and only a few persons on twitter seemed interested. You know why? When the race gets upped to ten nominees there’s an obvious dilution of the importance of the nominees. Who cares which ten the PGA nominate when three-quarters of them will be also-rans. And the list is especially safe and banal – the PGA nominees look like this: 127 Hours / Black Swan / The Fighter / Inception / The Kids Are All Right / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / The Town / Toy Story III / True Grit

                   

That’s about as generic as you can get, and I kind of suppose that that could easily be what the nominations look like come Oscar morning. If there’s any palpable omission (as far as Oscar prognostics go) it’s the lack of love for Winter’s Bone, which I can’t say I’m surprised about. In the scheme of things I’d say The Town and Winter’s Bone are fighting for that final spot, and as much as I’m not in love with The Town it does have the obvious pedigree which Winter’s Bone is sorely lacking.

                          

But enough of PGA, more on the race – I suppose it’s time for me to cast off my longstanding stubbornness/stupidity and submit to the fact that True Grit is a serious Oscar contender, it’s even being tossed around as a potential one to upset the race. I’m not sure I’m buying that. I’d say there are the two films fighting for the top spot - The Social Network and The King’s Speech are fighting for the top, though fighting is probably the wrong word because even though I’d love Hooper’s drama (still unseen for me, bah) to take the prize I’m not one of those people who continue to doubt the power of Fincher’s drama. Underneath those two we’ve got Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter and yes, True Grit. More than True Grit I wonder if Black Swan could be a surprise of the evening, but then I don’t think there will BE any surprises.

The Kids Are All Right will apparently take up the comedy quotient which is lovely, but it’s a shame that Cholodenko doesn’t even seem like a contender in the directing category – but more on that later in the week. It’s difficult to decide just where 127 Hours sits, it seems – in theory – like a contender, but the deafening lack of buzz makes me dubious – I still don’t think that Franco is really a contender (in the way of a potential win) in the Actor category. And apparently Toy Story III is going to take the now annual Pixar nod, which I’m less enthused about. Which leaves us with spot #10 – Winter’s Bone or The Town.

                     

Excuse the cynicism, I suppose perhaps all the voters are enamoured with these flicks but it seems like such lazy choosing when there are other films available. I’m still nonplussed, offended even, at the egregious lack of love for Rabbit Hole but for Nicole. I’m still questioning whether the voters have actually seen this one. I guess Shutter Island is officially out of the race, but I’m a tad surprised it gained absolutely no love here. Then there’s Get Low, I’m not sure what to make of Schneider’s film’s chances. Even Duvall seems like a precarious prediction at the best of times, I had been thinking that love for him could spill over to this category, but in retrospect – that’s probably not going to happen. Sure would love to see them shake it up a bit, how about (insert gasp) How to Train Your Dragon in the place of Toy Story III. I don’t know, something – anything. Damn this race is looking especially bland. Ugh.

                                           

So, Winter's Bone or The Town? Any impossible nominees you'd love to see come to fruition? 

Oscar Talk: Cinematography/Editing/Visual Effects

When it comes to the artistic and technical branches of the AMPAS I’m a fan of the three visual technical awards – cinematography, editing and visual effects, in that order. In fact, behind the acting categories cinematography might be my favourite. There’s something to be said about the time it takes to frame a scene and mise-en-scene and what not, even if the choices the members of the Academy make are sometimes woefully trite. In many ways, the cinematography nominees are like an alternate (and usually improved) version of the editing category. They’d nominate something like Far From Heaven or The Assassination of Jesse James... for cinematography, but not for editing. That’s why I’m predicting Shutter Island as a cinematography nominee and not as an editing one. Call it stubbornness, but I’m still not willing to think that it’s going to get completely shafted – especially in the technical categories where it’s so obviously towering above some of its contemporaries. I have True Grit as an alternate in both categories, I still have that inkling feeling that it doesn’t have a chance; I could be wrong. Considering that Deakins was the director of photography, a nomination is probably assured – and then some have been predicting it as a potential contender for a shock Oscar win. I don’t know, but here are my predictions.

Cinematography: Black Swan / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network / Shutter Island (alternate True Grit, 127 Hours)

Editing: 127 Hours / Black Swan / Inception / The King’s Speech / The Social Network (alternate True Grit, The Fighter)

Visual Effects: Alice in Wonderland / The Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader / Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows / Inception / TRON Legacy

                                                                                          

You know what I’d like to see, though? An editing nod for The Ghost Writer, a cinematography nod for Cairo Time or Rabbit Hole, a visual effects nod for Shutter Island. All worthy contenders that probably won’t be remembered, but it’d be nice if things got a little mixed-up.

"The Links Are Gonna Have Their Way..." (A Vaguely Oscar-ish Edition)

I’m shining the spotlight on two pieces this week, the first an article Jose wrote over at the Film Experience. I still find it  amusing that he manages to write so much on something as ineffectual as an Academy Awards’ poster – but there’s creative writing for you. And while we’re on the note of Oscars’ Nick writes an especially profound ten points (part 1, part 2) on what could very well be the next Best Picture winner – The Social Network.

So, will True Grit be a heavy hitter at the Oscars? I say no, but Paolo offers up a nice review of it. I didn't like the John Wayne version, so I'm dubious of how much I'll like this one...we shall see...(speaking of the original Yojimbo offers up a scene-analysis from the original True Grit).

 

I had something close to love for Animal Kingdom when I saw it a few weeks back (people, get on that) and Jacki Weaver is getting effusive praise for her role, Walter doesn’t love the film as much, but I still love his review of it.

The Fighter sort of came out of no where and is now looking like a heavy frontrunner, Castor seems to be particularly fond of it, and Tim offers up a nice review of it too (I especially love what he has to say about Adams, though alas I can't say if he's right - I've yet to see it) and to make it a trinity check out Joe's insightful take on the supporting women in The Fighter who won't be remembered come Oscar night.

Remember The Town? Of course you do, it seems like it may build steam and lead Jeremy Renner to a second Oscar nod. It's not that I hated The Town - I just didn't care much for it. That's why I like CS' review of it so much.