Oscar Talk: Supporting Women

People are making claims left and right, but of all the acting races the Supporting Actress one seems to have the least direction. I think that’s a good thing, though. I’m having an especially difficult time whittling down my personal ballot to five, and I haven’t even seen all of the heavyweights. True, I’ve already cast my Oscar vote blatantly to Helena Bonham Carter, and I’m still backing her all the way. If Helen Mirren, Jeff Bridges, Morgan Freeman and (insert gag) Sandra Bullock can win Oscars for lifetime achievement I have no problem with HBC doing the same – what a career it’s been. I have no idea if she’s a veritable threat, though – she’s obviously on her way to a nomination and from the looks of it she’ll be joined by The Fighter duo – Amy Adams and Melissa Leo. Perhaps it’s because I’ve yet to see Russell’s feature, but I keep on doubting that both ladies will turn up at the Oscars, but all indications point to that they will, I can be a bit headstrong in my stupidity sometimes. Melissa Leo is getting a lot of support for a win, but I’m even more doubtful of that – unless she stream-rolls the precursors. If Christian Bale ends up getting the push to go all out and take the win I can’t imagine Leo taking the Oscar too. I’d be more likely call Adams as a potential threat in the race; she’s been especially ubiquitous these past 5 years.
                      

Jackie Weaver, from Animal Kingdom (a film which should be receiving much more laurels than just Weaver) is another one being touted as a serious threat. She got a Globe nod, but SAG didn’t come knocking. I could see it happening, but I could just as easily see it not happening – and really, the lack of love from the SAG doesn’t help. True, Marcia Gay Harden took the Oscar without even a nomination from SAG or FPA but that was ten years ago and there are some key distinctions between Animal Kingdom and Pollock. Not only was the latter an American biopoic, but legendary thespian Ed Harris was helming the project (and starring in it), there was obvious goodwill there - Animal Kingdom doesn't have that obvious industry support. SAG gives support to Mila Kunis in Black Swan and Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit, who I heard is being fraudulently campaigned here – but it’s never stopped them before. Kunis has a Globe nod too, but that’s one prediction I’m tentative of supporting. Like the Best Actress race there’s that fifth spot that could go to anyone, and I’m yet to see Black Swan, but all the citations for Kunis still surprise me. Speaking of category fraud, though, maybe I shouldn’t count Julianne Moore out of the supporting category just yet. I’m predicting her in my Lead Actress spot, but who knows....perhaps she could show up here. If pushed, I’d predict Kunis over Steinfeld – though – because I have a feeling that True Grit is not going to be that much of a heavyhitter at the Globes. I can’t explain for the lack of love for Dianne Wiest who’s a perennial supporting actress, and a standout in a talented ensemble. It could be a surprise nod (a la Ruby Dee in American Gangster) but then, this year is much more packed a race than 2007. For now I’ll say Adams/Bonham-Carter/Leo/Wiest/Weaver – I’m gunning on the belief that the hundred or so actors who've worked with Woody Allen will support Wiest’s bid for a nod.

Shame that neither the ladies from Nowhere Boy (Kristin Scott Thomas or Anne Marie Duff) or The Ghost Writer (Kim Cattrall or Olivia Williams) have a shot, and Rosamund Pike has two supporting roles in Made in Dagenham and Barney’s Version that I’m looking forward to...but neither looks likely.

               

Which lady would bet on? Which lady would you like to see sidle into that fifth spot?